Springfield Area Blog

January 15th, 2008 6:30 PM

ECONOMIC COMMENTARY

Local housing market is stable…

The current environment is ideal for anyone thinking of buying a home.   The local housing market has shifted from what was a seller’s market just a few years ago into a more neutral market.   The larger annual appreciation we experienced from earlier in the decade has evened out over the past few years. 

Prices are more realistic now - so this presents a great opportunity for first-time homebuyers and those who are thinking to move into a larger house.   Granted, a seller will not be able to get the high-dollar amount which could be obtained in a red-hot seller’s market.   But that same seller will be able to afford something now that is possibly unobtainable in a red-hot seller’s market.

On top of all of this, as mentioned earlier, interest rates are nearing all-time lows.   We haven’t seen interest rates this good in almost three years.   The flip side is that three years ago – we were in a full blown seller’s market.   So rates were low and housing prices were high.   Now - rates are low and housing prices have leveled. 

 

WEEKLY INTEREST RATE OVERVIEW
 

The Markets. Goldman Sachs is in the news this week predicting a recession for 2008 along with a growing unemployment rate to reach 6.5% by 2009 from the current rate of 5.0%.  Goldman is also forecasting the Fed will continue to slash the Fed Funds rate until it reaches 2.5% by the third quarter of this year in an effort to achieve a “soft landing” for the economy.  According to Goldman, this would mean the Fed will cut Fed Funds by another 1.75% from their present level of 4.25%.   That would be aggressive for a Fed that is also very mindful of rising inflation pressures.  But the folks at Goldman are very smart and have a great track record.  It will be interesting to see this play out.


REAL ESTATE NEWS

The federal government is working diligently to institute changes to the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) to help more homeowners and homebuyers qualify for FHA loan programs.  These loans are attractive for private banks to provide because they are insured by the government. 

FHA Reform bills have passed in both the House of Representatives and the Senate.  A consensus bill is expected to be signed by President Bush within the first few months of this year.  Exact details must be agreed upon, but a few of the big changes include raising loan limits and also lowering down payment requirements for FHA loans.  This will help first-time homebuyers, minority buyers, and people who do not qualify for conventional mortgages – including those living in high-cost areas.

To ease sub-prime adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) adjustments, the Bush Administration announced late in 2007 a “Rate-Freeze Program” which is designed to help 1.8 million borrowers whose monthly payments are rising dramatically.  Anyone who may be affected can visit www.hopenow.com to learn more about the Hope Now Alliance of lenders, servicers, associations, and investors who are taking part in this voluntary rate-freeze agreement.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has continued to do its part to help the housing and mortgage industries by lowering the federal funds and discount rates multiple times this past fall and winter.  The Fed also has been lending billions of dollars to banks to help infuse money into the economy.  To avert abusive lending the Fed is also proposing a much stricter set of rules for mortgage lending to prohibit giving people unaffordable loans, stated income loans, and loans with pre-payment penalties.

 

Source:   Gorman and Gorman


Posted by Rick and Cheryle Below on January 15th, 2008 6:30 PMPost a Comment (0)

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